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A warship sailed among islands claimed by Beijing this week as the US steps up its military presence in response to China’s “open fire” laws. But an Australian strategist warns Beijing may have already its next escalation plan ready: wolf-warriors of the sea.
US President Joe Biden has called Xi Jinping’s regime America’s “most serious competitor” because of its attacks on “global governance”. His statement – and the warship’s movements – came after Beijing passed a provocative law enabling its Coast Guard to shoot at “intruders”.
The guided-missile destroyer USS Russell deliberately breached the 22km “sovereignty” limit of the South China Sea’s Spratly Islands. It followed in the wake of the USS John McCain, which conducted a similar challenge in the Paracel Islands earlier this month.
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“Unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the sea, including freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for South China Sea littoral nations,” US 7th Fleet spokesman Lieutenant Joe Keiley said in a statement.
Beijing had earlier issued its own statement accusing Washington of having “seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security, gravely undermined regional peace and stability, and deliberately disrupted the good atmosphere of peace, friendship and co-operation in the South China Sea”.
International security analysts warn the rising rhetoric, and forceful movements of warships in contested territories set the scene for a significant incident.
‘WOLF WARRIORS OF THE SEA’
Beijing’s authorisation of its coastguard to use force against foreign vessels “is a big change that has so far attracted far less attention than it deserves,” argues Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) director Michael Shoebridge.
The law allows the Chinese Coast Guard to take “all necessary measures,” including the use of lethal weapons, against any “violation” of Chinese sovereignty or jurisdiction.
Problem is, the rest of the world doesn’t recognise Beijing’s sovereignty or jurisdiction over the East and South China Seas.
“(Chairman Xi Jinping’s) boldness with the coastguard shows that he’s ratcheting up the risk he’s willing to take in confronting other nations and using the levers he has to project Chinese power. And the coastguard move is one that gives him very practical new tools to cause damage and insecurity and act in ways that others — particularly militaries — can’t, and probably shouldn’t, match.”
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Mr Shoebridge warns China’s Coast Guard and fishing militia already pose a risk through intimidating and ramming other nation’s vessels.
“What’s different now, though, is that with this new law Xi has told his coastguard to be wolf warriors at sea — and to use force, including lethal force, to assert Chinese interests,” he writes.
And they have an unexpected weapon at their disposal: Chinese Coast Guard ships are strengthened to survive ramming.
“So, we may need to be thinking less about the Chinese coast guard firing on other nations’ vessels and more about how to handle coastguard commanders who are full to the brim with wolf-warrior spirit and licensed by Xi to get into trouble, and how to deal with ships designed to hurt others without using their weapons.”
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ARMED AND DANGEROUS
An armed Chinese Coast Guard vessel entered Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands earlier this week for the first time since the ‘open fire’ law was introduced.
It and another unarmed Coast Guard vessel joined two others imposing their presence on the disputed islands since the weekend.
They then approached a Japanese fishing vessel before Japan’s own Coast Guard intervened.
Japan called the armed intrusion “regrettable” and the Chinese intimidation of a Japanese fishing boat “absolutely unacceptable.”
“These activities are a violation of international law,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato told media. Beijing, however, claims the remote rocks as its “inherent territory”.
“The issue, however, is not that China flagrantly violates international law – it is that it does so while simultaneously creating a veneer of legal legitimacy for its position,” argues Stanford University international security analyst Oriana Skylar Mastro in the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter.
“In other words, while international law may support the position of the US and Australia on legal behaviour within the EEZs, countries need to work harder to solidify this norm more broadly.”
US Heritage Foundation think-tank China analyst Jeff Smith argues the Biden administration – and its allies – must escalate their response.
“The vast majority of the world’s capitals find China’s claims in the South China Sea ludicrous,” he writes. “It would be harder for China to sell the false narrative that the South China Sea is a bilateral dispute with the United States if other countries were more robust in their exercise of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea like Australia is.
“Should Chinese attempts to restrict US freedom of navigation escalate, the administration should be prepared to increase the tempo and consider new flavours of FONOPs.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel
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